Uganda - Korkokanta

The Bank of Uganda slashed its benchmark lending rate by 100 basis points to 9% on October 7th 2019, reversing a 100 bps hike in October last year amid slower economic growth and lower inflation. The GDP growth slowed below 6 percent in the first and second quarter of 2019 while inflation rate continued to decline reaching near 1-1/2-year low of 1.9 percent in September. The inflation outlook was also revised downwards compared to the August forecasts and annual core inflation is now projected to remain below the 5 percent target until the fourth quarter of 2020.

The Bank of Uganda held its benchmark lending rate for the fifth consecutive time at 10% on August 15th, to support growth, as economic activity slowed in the first two quarters of the year. The GDP growth is projected at 6-6.3% in 2019, supported by strong domestic demand and improvements in the agricultural sector. Over a 2-5 year horizon, growth must remain robust, averaging 6.2 percent per annum. Still, policymakers pointed some downside risks to the outlook, namely external factors linked to a subdued global demand, alongside domestic ones such as weather-related constraints and delays in implementation of public investment programmes. Regarding inflation, though it slowed sharply to a 7-month low of 2.6 percent in July, the near-term inflation forecasts are higher than in June.

The Bank of Uganda kept its benchmark lending rate for the fourth consecutive time at 10% on June 18th 2019, saying that growth should strengthen to 6.3% in 2019 from 6.1% a year earlier. In May, headline inflation rate eased to 3.3% from 3.5% in the prior month and annual core inflation fell to 4.6% from 4.8% in April, moving away from the central bank's midpoint target of 5 percent. However, policymakers noted that escalating global trade tensions, local unfavourable weather and delays in infrastructure projects are the major risks to the economic outlook.

The Bank of Uganda held its benchmark lending rate for the third consecutive time at 10% on April 1st, saying economic activity is close to its potential of 6-6.5%. The country's annual core inflation jumped to 4.6 percent in March, its highest level since June 2017 and close to the central bank's midpoint target of 5 percent. The inflation outlook in the short-term is unchanged compared to the February 2019 forecast although risks remain elevated. However, inflation in the medium-term is projected slightly higher: annual headline inflation and core inflation are now forecast to reach 6.3% and 6.4% in Q3 2021.

The Central Bank of Uganda kept its benchmark interest rate at 10 percent on February 7th 2019, saying the inflation outlook for the near-term has improved, largely due to a relatively stronger currency and a good crop harvest. However, risks to the outlook remain elevated and inflation is expected to converge to the target of 5 percent in the medium-term. The annual inflation rose to 2.7 percent in January from 2.2 percent in the prior month. The bank projects the economy to expand by 6.3 percent in 2018-19 and to grow steadily over the coming years.