Libanon - Valmistus-PMI

The BLOM Lebanon PMI fell to 37.0 in November 2019 from 48.3 in the previous month, pointing to the sharpest contraction in private sector activity since the survey began in May 2013. Both output and new orders declined at historically marked rates driven by widespread protests which erupted in October 17th. As a result, firms continued to cut jobs and at the quickest pace in over three years. Also, supplier delivery times lengthened to the greatest extent on record, amid reports of road and port blockages. In terms of prices, input prices increased at the fastest pace since January 2018, back when the country's sales tax rose. Meantime, output charges were raised for the first time since February but the rate of inflation was only marginal overall. Looking ahead, sentiment was at the weakest level since May 2017, driven by fears that the current political and economic turmoil would persist.

The BLOM Lebanon PMI rose to 48.3 in October 2019 from 46.4 in the previous month, the smallest contraction in private sector activity since January 2016. However, data was collected on or before the 17th of October, due to business closures amid protests across Lebanon. Output shrank the least in 45 months and new orders declined at the slowest rate since January 2016, mainly on the domestic market, as new export orders fell at a pace broadly consistent with that in September. Meanwhile, employment has been little changed in five of the past six months. On the price front, input prices increased marginally while output cost fell for the twentieth month in a row. Finally, firms remained pessimistic towards the one-year business outlook but the degree of negativity eased to the weakest since April.

The BLOM Lebanon PMI fell to 46.4 in September 2019 from 47.8 in the previous month, signalling the fastest deterioration in business conditions faced by Lebanese private sector firms for three months. Output and new orders contracted at a faster rate amid concerns about political instability. In addition, new export business declined the most in six months and employment also fell. On the cost front, input price inflation quickened driven by higher purchasing costs while average output charges fell further.

The BLOM Lebanon PMI came in at 47.8 in August 2019, little-changed from 47.7 in the prior month, pointing to the smallest contraction in private sector activity since January 2016. Output fell for the third month running but at the softest pace since January 2016, with demand being dampened by political instability. Likewise, the rate of decline in new orders was the slowest for just over two-and-a-half-years. In contrast, exports fell at the fastest pace for five months. On the other hand, employment was broadly unchanged, ending a 17-month sequence of workforce contraction. However, firms continued to reduce their purchasing activity, albeit at the joint-softest rate since January last year. On the price front, input cost inflation eased slightly from July and was only fractional overall; and output charges fell further. Finally, firms remained more pessimistic towards the business outlook, driven by expectations for prolonged political instability.

The BLOM Lebanon PMI increased to 47.7 in July of 2019 from 46.3 in the previous month, pointing to the smallest contraction in private sector activity since February of 2017, as output declined at the softest pace since April of 2017. Additionally, the pace of reduction in new orders eased to the slowest in over two years while new export orders also contracted at a softer pace in July. Meantime, the rate of job cutting was broadly unchanged from June. On the price front, input cost inflation continued to rise driven by higher purchase prices. Meanwhile, businesses remained pessimistic regarding business’ outlook in the year ahead, amid fears that the current economic downturn would persist.

The BLOM Lebanon PMI came in at 46.3 in June of 2019, unchanged from the previous month. The reading continued to reflect a deterioration in operating conditions across private sector firms in Lebanon. Output continued to contract amid political and economic instability while new orders declined sharply. On the front price, input prices rose for the fourth straight month while average selling prices decreased further in June. Finally, companies remained pessimistic, mainly due to deterioration in market conditions.